China appears to be expanding its nuclear capabilities, US researchers say in new report

Hong Kong (CNN)China is building a second field of missile silos in its western deserts, according to a new study, which researchers say signals a potential expansion of its nuclear arsenal and calls into question Beijing's commitment to its "minimum deterrence" strategy.


Army, Chinese Army,
Identified via satellite imagery, the new missile base in China's Xinjiang region may eventually include 110 silos, said the report released Monday by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).


It is the second apparent silo field uncovered this month by researchers, adding to 120 silos that appear to be under construction in the neighboring province of Gansu, as detailed by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.


Together, the two sites signify "the most significant expansion of the Chinese nuclear arsenal ever," the FAS report said.


CNN has reached out to the Chinese Foreign Ministry and Defense Ministry for comment on the latest report. Previously, some Chinese media outlets dismissed reports of the missile silo field in Gansu, suggesting it was a wind farm, but the claim has not been confirmed by Beijing.


Adam Ni, director of the Canberra-based China Policy Center, said the discovery of the apparent silo fields is "pretty convincing evidence of China's intent to significantly expand its nuclear arsenal -- in a faster manner than a lot of analysts have so far predicted."


For decades, China has operated about 20 silos for its liquid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) called the DF-5; now, it appears to be building 10 times more, possibly for housing its newest ICBM, the DF-41, according to the FAS report.


"The Chinese missile silo program constitutes the most extensive silo construction since the US and Soviet missile silo construction during the Cold War," the report said. "The number of new Chinese silos under construction exceeds the number of silo-based ICBMs operated by Russia, and constitutes more than half of the size of the entire US ICBM force."


The seemingly rapid buildup has raised questions over whether China is still committed to keeping its nuclear arsenal at the minimum level necessary to deter an adversary from attacking -- a policy Beijing has adopted since detonating its first atomic bomb in the 1960s.


The "minimum deterrence" posture has historically kept China's nuclear weapons at a comparatively low level. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates China to have about 350 nuclear warheads, a fraction of the 5,550 possessed by the United States and the 6,255 by Russia.


But China's warhead count has increased in recent years, up from 145 warheads in 2006 according to the institute. The Pentagon predicts the Chinese stockpile to "at least double in size" over the next decade.


"China's nuclear force posture has evolved steadily over the past 10 years with road-mobile missile launchers recently joined by the nuclear-capable H-6N bomber, a new submarine-launched ballistic missile, and a growing number of static silos, giving China an increasingly robust and survivable nuclear triad," said Drew Thompson, a former US Defense Department official and visiting senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.


China, China Army,


In a statement provided to CNN, a US State Department spokesperson described the apparent buildup as "deeply concerning," noting that it raised questions as to China's true intent.


"Despite the PRC's obfuscation, this rapid build-up has become more difficult to hide and highlights how China is deviating from decades of nuclear strategy based around minimum deterrence," said the spokesperson, referring to China by the acronym for its official name, the People's Republic of China. "These advances highlight why it is in everyone's interest that nuclear powers talk to one another directly about reducing nuclear dangers and avoiding miscalculation," added the spokesperson.

Post a Comment

0 Comments