DefenseNews: In the latest Japan government survey released on January 9, 2026, the Japanese public identified China’s rapidly expanding military capabilities as their foremost security concern, surpassing even North Korea’s nuclear threats.
With 68% of respondents highlighting China’s military technology advancements and activities near Japan and in the South China Sea, public anxiety has grown significantly over the past three years. This surge in concern coincides with heightened geopolitical tensions, recent Chinese military drills near Japan, and escalating debates in Tokyo over the Self-Defense Forces’ role. Japan’s next defense strategy, which is expected to further increase military funding, reflects the nation’s recognition of China’s expanding influence and the need to bolster deterrence measures across its Army, Navy, and Air Force.
Japan’s Rising Security Concerns over China
Japan’s security landscape is undergoing a significant transformation as public opinion increasingly prioritizes China over traditional threats like North Korea. The survey of 1,534 respondents revealed that nearly seven out of ten Japanese citizens now view China’s military developments as the top national security challenge.
This perception is fueled by several factors: China’s consistent modernization of its People’s Liberation Army (PLA), increased naval presence in the East China Sea, and repeated air patrols near Japanese airspace. The PLA’s integration of advanced missile systems, fifth-generation fighter aircraft, and amphibious capabilities demonstrates a multi-dimensional threat that Japan cannot ignore.
Experts emphasize that Japan’s strategic calculus is being reshaped by these developments, prompting Tokyo to reevaluate force posture, regional alliances, and contingency planning for potential conflicts in East Asia.
"The PLA’s modernization across the Army, Navy, and Air Force is systematically enhancing China’s operational reach. Japan’s response, including public support for the Self-Defense Forces and increased defense allocations, is a rational adaptation to an evolving security environment.": Dr. Hiroshi Tanaka, a defense analyst at the Asia-Pacific Security Institute, notes.
Chinese Military Advancements Driving Concerns
China’s Army, Navy, and Air Force have all seen notable advancements in recent years, intensifying Japan’s security worries:
People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Army: The PLA Army has strengthened rapid deployment units and modernized artillery and armored divisions capable of rapid response across contested areas. Exercises in border regions and near Taiwan demonstrate China’s growing operational readiness and ability to project force beyond its borders.
PLA Navy: China’s naval expansion, particularly in aircraft carriers, missile-equipped destroyers, and amphibious assault ships, has transformed the PLA Navy into a formidable blue-water force. The increased presence of Chinese warships near the Senkaku Islands and in the East China Sea has triggered heightened vigilance by Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF).
PLA Air Force: The PLA Air Force has modernized its fleet with stealth fighters, long-range bombers, and advanced surveillance aircraft. Increased sorties near Japan highlight China’s ability to conduct air dominance operations and rapid response missions, directly impacting regional air security dynamics.
This multi-branch modernization signals China’s intent to enhance deterrence, assert regional dominance, and influence geopolitical outcomes across East Asia.
South China Sea and Regional Implications
Japan perceives these actions as potential threats to its supply chains, energy routes, and regional trade security. With China’s increased naval and air activity, Japan is compelled to strengthen monitoring capabilities, joint training exercises with allies, and long-range strike preparedness to ensure maritime security.
Analysts note that China’s activities in the South China Sea also serve as a testing ground for joint operations, signaling its ability to coordinate land, sea, and air forces for integrated regional operations—an aspect that Japan closely monitors in defense planning.
Public Support for Japan’s Self-Defense Forces
The survey also highlights a record-high favorable opinion of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces (JSDF), with 94% of respondents expressing confidence in the military. This surge in support reflects public recognition of the JSDF’s critical role in safeguarding national security against potential Chinese aggression.
Japan’s military modernization efforts are already underway, with plans to double defense spending to 2% of GDP. This includes procurement of advanced fighter jets, missile defense systems, naval vessels, and cyber warfare capabilities. The emphasis on cutting-edge technology is aimed at enhancing deterrence and ensuring Japan’s readiness in multi-domain operations.
Political Context: Takaichi Government and Defense Policy
The timing of the survey coincides with political developments in Japan. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s statements regarding possible JSDF deployment in defense of Taiwan—if Beijing were to take aggressive action sparked diplomatic tensions with China.
Beijing’s reaction included threats to restrict rare-earth exports critical to Japanese industry, travel advisories, and military drills near Japan. These developments underscore the complex interplay between public sentiment, government defense policy, and regional security considerations.
The Takaichi administration is expected to formulate its next defense plan, which will likely include:
- Strengthening joint operational capabilities of the Army, Navy, and Air Force.
- Expanding missile defense systems and rapid deployment forces.
- Enhancing cybersecurity and intelligence capabilities to counter PLA activities.
- Deepening alliances, particularly with the United States, to maintain regional stability.
Strategic Implications for Japan-China Relations
China’s rapid military modernization and assertive regional posture have direct implications for Japan’s security policy:
- Deterrence: Japan’s increased defense spending and modernization serve as a deterrent against potential PLA aggression.
- Alliance Strengthening: Reinforcing the U.S.-Japan security alliance remains a central strategy to counterbalance China’s growing influence.
- Regional Stability: Japan’s security posture influences neighboring countries’ policies, including South Korea, Taiwan, and ASEAN nations, shaping a broader regional response to China’s military rise.
Analysts warn that any miscalculation or escalation could destabilize East Asia, emphasizing the importance of measured diplomacy alongside military preparedness.
Technology and Military Capability Focus
Japan’s concern is not only about China’s numerical military growth but also the quality and sophistication of its military technology:
- Missile Systems: The PLA has deployed advanced ballistic and cruise missile systems capable of precision strikes across regional targets.
- Stealth Aircraft: J-20 stealth fighters extend China’s reach and challenge Japan’s air defense capabilities.
- Naval Platforms: New aircraft carriers and amphibious vessels enhance China’s maritime strike capacity and operational flexibility.
- Cyber and Electronic Warfare: China is developing robust cyber capabilities that can target critical Japanese infrastructure and defense networks.
These developments underline the need for Japan to invest in cutting-edge surveillance, missile defense, and AI-enabled command systems to maintain a technological edge.
Regional and Global Security Implications
China’s expanding military power has ramifications beyond Japan:
- Taiwan Contingency: Japan’s defense planning increasingly considers the possibility of PLA operations around Taiwan, which could directly impact Japanese security interests.
- U.S.-China Balance: Japan’s alliance with the United States is pivotal, as any regional conflict could draw in U.S. forces, reinforcing Japan’s strategic importance.
- ASEAN Dynamics: Neighboring Southeast Asian nations monitor China’s actions closely, potentially influencing their military modernization and alliance strategies.
Experts emphasize that Japan’s security strategy will continue to evolve in response to China’s dual approach of technological advancement and strategic assertiveness in maritime and aerial domains
Military analysts suggest that the Japanese survey reflects a broader recognition that China is no longer a distant threat but a regional power capable of projecting force near Japan’s borders.
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