Trump-Xi Taiwan Talks Put U.S. Allies on Alert

U.S. allies in Asia are watching Trump-Xi Taiwan talks closely as questions grow over arms sales, deterrence and Washington's policy toward Taipei.

Could the Taiwan issue become one of the most consequential subjects in the upcoming Trump-Xi summit? As U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington on September 24, Taiwan and Japan are closely watching Washington's position on the island, particularly after Trump described U.S. arms sales to Taiwan as a potential negotiating tool.

Trump-Xi Taiwan Talks Draw Regional Attention

The planned meeting between Trump and Xi comes at a sensitive moment for relations between the United States, China and Taiwan. Reuters reported on September 17 that U.S. allies in Asia are increasingly concerned about whether Washington could adjust its approach to Taiwan while seeking economic agreements with Beijing. The concern is particularly visible in Taiwan and Japan, where officials and lawmakers are closely following preparations for the summit.

Xi is expected to raise Taiwan during the September 24 meeting. China considers Taiwan a core national interest and has not renounced the use of force to achieve unification. Washington, meanwhile, maintains its long-standing "one China" policy. Under that policy, the United States does not take a position on Taiwan's sovereignty and acknowledges, without endorsing, Beijing's position that Taiwan is part of China.

The immediate concern among some U.S. partners is not necessarily a formal change in policy, but whether statements made during or around the summit could alter perceptions of American commitment to Taiwan. Reuters quoted Emma Chanlett-Avery, political-security affairs director at the Asia Society Policy Institute, as saying there is significant uncertainty among U.S. allies about where Washington's China policy will settle.

Why Taiwan Is Central to U.S.-China Relations

Taiwan has remained one of the most difficult issues in the U.S.-China relationship for decades. Beijing regards Taiwan as part of China and has repeatedly opposed what it calls "Taiwan independence." Washington maintains unofficial relations with Taipei while also maintaining diplomatic relations with Beijing.

For the United States, Taiwan is also connected to wider questions of regional security and deterrence. Taiwan occupies a strategically important position in the first island chain and sits close to major sea and air routes in the Western Pacific. Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and other regional states closely monitor developments because a major crisis across the Taiwan Strait could have consequences extending well beyond the island itself.

The semiconductor industry adds another layer to the issue. Taiwan is a major global producer of advanced semiconductors, making stability around the island important not only to governments and militaries but also to the international technology and manufacturing sectors. Reuters reported that Taiwan produces more than 90% of the world's advanced semiconductors.

U.S. Arms Sales Become a Key Issue

One of the most closely watched elements of the upcoming summit is a proposed U.S. arms package for Taiwan worth about $14 billion. Reuters reported that the package has been awaiting Trump's approval for months and that, following his May meeting with Xi, Trump said he was holding it in abeyance and characterized it as a "very good negotiating chip."

That description has attracted particular attention in Taipei because U.S. arms sales are an important component of Taiwan's defense planning. The island has been seeking to strengthen its ability to deter and respond to potential military pressure from China through investments in conventional and asymmetric capabilities.

The issue also has a legal dimension. U.S. security relations with Taiwan are governed in significant part by the Taiwan Relations Act, which provides the framework for American relations with the island and U.S. policy concerning defensive arms.

Taiwanese officials have therefore continued to communicate directly with Washington. Shen Yu-chung, a senior Taiwanese official, told reporters that Taipei had been clearly communicating its positions to the United States and said Taiwan hoped there would be no outcome that harmed the island. Taiwan Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung also said he expected Xi to raise Taiwan during the summit while noting that Washington had repeatedly said its policy toward the island had not changed.

Taiwan's position has also been publicly stated in previous official communications. The Presidential Office has emphasized that Taiwan-U.S. security cooperation and arms sales are connected to the island's self-defense capabilities and regional stability.

Japan Is Watching the Summit Closely

Japan has a particularly direct interest in the Taiwan issue because of its geographic proximity to the island and its security relationship with the United States. Reuters reported that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has been seeking contact with Trump ahead of the summit, according to two Japanese government sources.

A senior Japanese foreign ministry official reportedly visited Washington the previous week as part of efforts to arrange contact. Japan's Foreign Ministry declined to comment on specific working-level trips and said no meeting between Takaichi and Trump had been decided. However, the ministry said Tokyo would closely follow the summit and considered it important that U.S.-China relations contribute to international stability.

Reuters also reported that Tokyo wants Washington to maintain established diplomatic language concerning Taiwan and avoid allowing Taiwan to dominate the summit's agenda. Two Japanese ruling-party lawmakers told Reuters that their concern was that Washington could signal a softer position on Taiwan while seeking Chinese commitments to purchase U.S. goods.

Japan's interest is partly driven by geography. The Taiwan Strait lies close to Japan's southwestern island chain, while U.S. military forces stationed in Japan are an important component of Washington's regional security posture. Any significant change in the security environment around Taiwan would therefore have implications for Japanese defense planning.

At the same time, Japan has its own relationship with China and economic interests that make the broader U.S.-China relationship important to Tokyo. For Japanese policymakers, the summit therefore has implications beyond Taiwan alone.

China Maintains Its Long-Standing Position

Beijing has consistently described Taiwan as a central issue in China's relations with the United States. China's Foreign Ministry said in February 2026 that the Taiwan question was the most important issue in China-U.S. relations and called on Washington to handle arms sales to Taiwan with prudence.

Chinese officials have also repeatedly said that Beijing will safeguard what it considers China's sovereignty and territorial integrity. At the same time, Chinese statements have emphasized the importance of avoiding conflict and maintaining communication between Washington and Beijing.

Ahead of the September summit, these positions are likely to remain important because Taiwan sits at the intersection of China's sovereignty claims, U.S. regional strategy and the security calculations of American allies.

At the Beijing Xiangshan Forum this week, former Chinese ambassador to the United States Cui Tiankai argued that reunification with Taiwan would contribute to stability and would be in the interests of the United States, according to Reuters. Fudan University professor Wu Xinbo, who advises China's Foreign Ministry, also said Washington should take Beijing's concerns over arms sales seriously.

These are Chinese positions and should be distinguished from independent assessments of what might happen during the summit. Neither the White House nor China's Foreign Ministry provided Reuters with comments for the September 17 report.

What Is Actually at Stake?

The central question is not simply whether Trump and Xi will discuss Taiwan. They almost certainly will, according to reporting from officials and analysts cited by Reuters. The more consequential issue is what the two leaders say about the subject and whether any commitments emerge from their discussions.

Three areas are particularly important.

First, U.S. arms sales will remain closely watched. The pending $14 billion package represents a tangible measure of Washington's approach to Taiwan, although approval or delay by itself would not establish the full direction of U.S. policy.

Second, strategic ambiguity and deterrence remain significant. Trump has not made the same explicit public commitment to defend Taiwan that his predecessor Joe Biden repeatedly made. Reuters reported that Trump has declined to say whether the United States would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack, while saying Xi personally assured him that China would not attack Taiwan during Trump's presidency.

Third, alliance confidence is an important factor. Japan and Taiwan are watching not only formal policy decisions but also presidential statements, diplomatic language and the broader direction of U.S.-China relations.

International Reactions

Taiwan: Lin Chia-lung, Foreign Minister: Lin said he expected Xi to raise Taiwan during the Trump-Xi meeting and noted that Washington had repeatedly stated that its policy toward Taiwan had not changed.

Japan: Foreign Ministry: Japan's Foreign Ministry said Tokyo would follow the upcoming Trump-Xi summit closely and stressed the importance of U.S.-China relations contributing to stability in the international community.

 

China: Chinese Foreign Ministry: China's official position remains that Taiwan is central to China-U.S. relations and that Washington should exercise prudence over arms sales to Taiwan.

 

Asia Society Policy Institute — Emma Chanlett-Avery: Chanlett-Avery told Reuters that U.S. allies have significant concerns about where Washington's China policy will ultimately settle and said any indication of reduced U.S. support for Taiwan would be alarming.

The Broader Security Picture

The Taiwan issue cannot be separated entirely from the wider transformation of the Indo-Pacific security environment. China has expanded its military capabilities over the past several decades, while the United States has strengthened security cooperation with Japan, Australia, the Philippines and other regional partners.

Japan has also been increasing its defense capabilities and deepening cooperation with Washington. Meanwhile, Taiwan has been increasing its own defense spending and emphasizing asymmetric capabilities designed to complicate any potential military operation against the island.

These developments create a security environment in which military signaling matters. A change in official wording, a new arms decision or an unexpected statement from either Trump or Xi could therefore receive close attention from governments throughout the region.

At the same time, the available evidence does not establish that the United States is preparing to abandon Taiwan or that China intends to launch military action. Reuters reported concern among allies about the possibility of a policy shift, but those concerns should not be presented as confirmation of an impending change in U.S. policy.

Why the Summit Matters Beyond Taiwan

The Trump-Xi meeting is expected to address a broader range of issues, including trade and economic relations. Taiwan is only one component of an increasingly complex U.S.-China relationship.

Nevertheless, Taiwan carries unusual strategic weight because decisions involving the island can affect military planning, alliance relationships, semiconductor supply chains and the credibility of deterrence across the Indo-Pacific.

For Japan, South Korea and other U.S. partners, the summit could provide indications about how Washington intends to balance competition and cooperation with Beijing. For Taiwan, the focus will be on whether American security support remains predictable. For China, the central objective remains preventing what Beijing describes as Taiwanese independence and limiting U.S. military support for Taipei.

The September 24 meeting therefore arrives at a point when even carefully chosen diplomatic language could attract significant attention.

The most immediate milestone is the expected Trump-Xi meeting in Washington on September 24. Before then, Taiwan is likely to continue communicating its security concerns to Washington, while Japanese officials will continue monitoring the summit's preparations. Reuters reported that Japan has also sought an opportunity for Takaichi to speak with Trump ahead of the meeting.

The pending U.S. arms package will remain another closely watched issue. Its status could provide a concrete indication of Washington's near-term approach, although a single arms decision would not by itself define the entirety of U.S. Taiwan policy.

For now, the key fact is that the United States, China, Taiwan and Japan are approaching the summit with different but overlapping security interests. Washington is seeking to manage a highly consequential relationship with Beijing, Beijing continues to treat Taiwan as a core national issue, Taipei is seeking continued security cooperation, and Tokyo is watching for implications for its own national and regional security.

The outcome of the summit will therefore be judged not only by any formal agreement but also by the language used by both leaders and the subsequent actions of their governments.